If you have priced a holiday flight lately and felt your stomach drop, you are not imagining it. Rising airfare is the story of this fall, and fuel is the reason it started. The average price of jet fuel in the United States hit $4.90 per gallon on October 22, according to the tracking firm Argus, the highest single day average the firm has ever recorded and more than twice the price a year ago. Gulf Coast spot prices tell the same story: $2.43 per gallon before the war involving the US, Israel, and Iran began in February, and $4.63 by October 20, according to Energy Information Administration data reported by Reuters.

Airlines are passing that cost straight to us. Here is what the numbers look like, what it costs a family, and what I expect going into the holiday season. Prices in this article are as of October 28, 2026.

The numbers behind rising airfare

Start with the government data, because it is the hardest to argue with. The Bureau of Labor Statistics airline fare index was up 22.4 percent year over year in September 2026, against overall inflation of 3.7 percent. That was the tenth straight monthly increase, and an all time high for the index.

The holiday numbers are worse. According to Hopper’s 2026 Holiday Travel Index, a domestic round trip for Thanksgiving is averaging $402, up $95 or 31 percent from last year. Christmas flights are averaging $452 round trip, up $85 or 23 percent. Hopper’s lead economist calls current airfares a 10 year high, driven by fuel.

Other datasets point the same way. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics put the average domestic itinerary fare at $445 in the second quarter of 2026, the highest unadjusted quarterly fare on record. Airline Reporting Corporation data shows the average economy round trip ticket settled through travel agencies at $608 in September, up 21 percent from a year earlier. An analysis of Department of Transportation ticket data found one way domestic fares averaged $279 from April through June, up 16 percent from the same months of 2025, with fares higher on 89 percent of the 6,694 city pairs compared.

Fuel is the through line. The International Air Transport Association put jet fuel at $192.44 a barrel in the week ending October 16, against a $90 average in 2025, and expects fuel to make up nearly a third of airline operating costs in 2026. American Airlines said its third quarter fuel bill jumped 67.5 percent from a year earlier, adding $1.9 billion in costs. Delta expects to spend about $6 billion more on fuel this year than last. Southwest paid $3.92 per gallon in the third quarter and expects about $4.55 in the fourth. United’s fourth quarter guidance assumes about $4.80 per gallon.

Why fuel is not the whole story

Fuel lit the fire, but four other things are keeping fares high.

First, airlines are choosing higher fares over fuller planes. American’s chief financial officer told Reuters the carrier is deliberately weighing revenue quality against passenger volume, and said that if fuel stays elevated, the airline has to keep pushing yield up. Delta, United, Southwest, and Alaska have all stressed margins over volume on recent earnings calls. The five largest US carriers collected roughly $8.8 billion more in passenger revenue in the third quarter, up about 18 percent, even though traffic grew less than 1 percent. That is a strategy, not an accident.

Second, Spirit Airlines stopped flying on May 2, taking the cheapest seats out of the market. Routes where Spirit carried at least 20 percent of passengers made up about 11 percent of nonstop domestic tickets in March and April, and fares on those routes rose once the cheap tickets dropped out of the mix. Spirit explains only about one percentage point of the national increase, but on the routes your family actually flies, it can matter a lot more.

Third, airlines trimmed planned flying. United planned about five points less capacity than originally scheduled for the rest of 2026, and industry forecasts put North American capacity growth at just 0.3 percent. Fewer seats plus steady demand equals higher fares.

Fourth, there are not enough new planes. The industry order backlog stands at 18,100 aircraft, more than half the active fleet, according to IATA. Airlines cannot grow their way out of a high cost environment, as Delta’s chief executive put it, so they are not even trying.

What this costs a family

Here is where it gets personal. Take the Hopper averages and multiply by headcount, because airlines charge per seat and kids over two pay full fare.

For our family of four, a Thanksgiving round trip at the $402 average is $1,608, up $380 from last year. A Christmas round trip at the $452 average is $1,808, up $340. That is before bags, seat selection, or snacks, and it assumes you pay the average. On some routes the increase is much bigger. Going’s holiday outlook found Thanksgiving fares up 28 percent in the Midwest but only 11 percent in the West, and Christmas fares up 34 percent in the Northeast.

Your math depends on your route, but the test is simple: take any per ticket increase you see quoted and multiply it by the number of seats your family needs. That is your real increase. If that number stings, the points playbook below is where you fight back.

One more thing worth knowing: holiday travel is sticky. Hopper notes that even with higher prices, travelers are unlikely to make major changes to their traditional trips home for the holidays. Airlines know this. It is part of why they are comfortable holding fares high.

What to expect going into the holiday season

I expect fares to stay high through the holidays, and I would not plan around a big drop. Three reasons.

One, airline executives have said plainly on earnings calls that they intend to keep fares where they are even after fuel prices ease. Fares react to jet fuel with a lag, and the reaction is not symmetric: prices go up fast when fuel spikes and come down slowly, if at all, when it eases. A one day dip in crude does not reprice seats that were loaded into the system weeks ago.

Two, much of the holiday inventory is already sold. Delta has said more than 60 percent of its fourth quarter was already booked. The remaining seats on popular routes will not get cheaper as the plane fills.

Three, capacity is not coming back. With trimmed schedules, no Spirit, and a plane shortage, there is no flood of new cheap seats coming before Christmas.

That does not mean you should panic buy the first fare you see. It means the waiting game has flipped: waiting used to be how you caught a sale, and this season waiting is how you pay more. If you have a trip you know you are taking, book it. If you hold a changeable fare and the price drops, that drop is yours to claim as a credit or refund, depending on the fare rules.

For timing details like which days to fly, our holiday booking guide covers the day of week patterns. This article is about the price environment you are booking into.

The points playbook when cash fares spike

This is where points earn their keep. Cash fares are up more than 20 percent, but award prices on fixed partner charts do not move with cash fares at all. That gap is the opportunity.

First, compare the award price against the cash price on the exact flight before you transfer anything. Divide the cash fare by the miles required. If the answer beats what your points are worth to you elsewhere, book the award. For our family, a $402 Thanksgiving ticket that costs 25,000 miles works out to about 1.6 cents per mile, which beats holding those miles for a cheaper day. Our award budget calculator runs that same math across your balances, so you can see whether the award or the cash fare wins before you search flight by flight.

Second, search with all passengers entered before transferring points. If four award seats do not exist on one flight, you want to learn that with your points still in your bank account, not after they are locked in an airline program. This is our standing rule and it matters most when cabins are full.

Third, know which points do not hedge. Southwest Rapid Rewards prices track cash fares directly, so a 30 percent cash increase means a 30 percent points increase too. Southwest points are still useful, just not a shelter from this spike. Fixed chart partner awards, like American’s partner chart for off peak Europe or Alaska’s distance based chart, are where the shelter is.

Fourth, book award seats early. Saver space on popular holiday routes is often gone months ahead, and cash fares being cheapest in October does not mean award seats are still there. If you are booking with points for Thanksgiving or Christmas and have not searched yet, search today.

Fifth, set a fare alert even after you book. Google Flights price tracking works for cash fares, and if your fare is changeable, a drop after booking is money back. On award tickets, check whether the program reprices; some will let you rebook at a lower miles price and refund the difference.

The bottom line

Rising airfare this fall is real, it is driven by fuel that has roughly doubled, and it is being locked in by airlines that would rather fly emptier planes at higher fares than chase volume. For a family of four, the holiday increase is roughly $340 to $380 on one round trip at the national averages, and more on the hardest hit routes.

I do not expect relief before the holidays. Book the trips you know you are taking, use points where the award price has not followed the cash price up, and search with every passenger entered before a single point moves. That is how our family is handling it, and it is the best defense I know against a fare environment that is not coming down soon.